Today on the way back from Salisbury to Sussex.
1. Blue Z3, P210 xxx reg, 10.35am, Barford St. Martin, Wiltshire
2. Silver Z3, V230 xxx reg, 3.30pm, on the A272 towards Petersfield
Common sense suggests the odds of spotting a Z3 surely increase with longer journeys on sunny days.
So just for fun I asked AI, "What are the odds of spotting two Zeds in one day?"
Results below...
Assuming you see 150–250 different cars in a typical day:
1. Blue Z3, P210 xxx reg, 10.35am, Barford St. Martin, Wiltshire
2. Silver Z3, V230 xxx reg, 3.30pm, on the A272 towards Petersfield
Common sense suggests the odds of spotting a Z3 surely increase with longer journeys on sunny days.
So just for fun I asked AI, "What are the odds of spotting two Zeds in one day?"
Results below...
1. How rare is the Z3? (UK 2026)
- Licensed (on road): ~8,909
- Total surviving (including SORN): ~16,040
- Share of all UK cars: ~0.03% — 1 in every ~3,300 vehicles
- Seasonal factor: Only ~56% are taxed year-round; 30–35% are summer-only / SORNed
2. Basic Probability Estimate
Assuming you see 150–250 different cars in a typical day:
- Probability of seeing one Z3: ~4–8% per 100 cars → ~10–20% daily baseline
- Probability of seeing two or more: ~3–6% on average weekdays
- But clustering changes everything — owners drive them together, on nice days, on scenic routes
| Weekday, town/city, cloudy | ~5–10% |
| Weekend, sunny, rural roads | ~40–60% |
| South Downs / A27 / coastal routes | ~50–75% (your local area) |
| Classic car meet / show | 90–100% |
| Winter / rainy / cold | <2% (most are off the road) |
[th]
Scenario
[/th][th]Chance of ≥2 Z3s in one day
[/th]3. Why it feels higher than the math
- Visibility: Z3 is small, distinctive, open-top — easier to spot than a random hatchback
- Social driving: Owners go out together, so sightings cluster instead of being random
- Hants/West Sussex/South Downs: Popular classic-car territory, so density is higher than national average
